Category Three — Bad Brett Favre Predictions: Suppose William Tecumseh Sherman had said in 1884, “I sort of guess I could be president, but maybe I kind of don’t think I am really into that.” Weeping, Brett Favre announced his retirement in March 2008, saying, “I know I can play, but I don’t think I want to.” The most excruciating story in sports history was on.
A few weeks later, the Los Angeles Times said Favre already was planning a comeback. Peter King of Sports Illustrated and NBC promptly debunked the story, reporting Favre had told him exclusively that a comeback was “the last thing I am thinking about.” (For most people, “exclusive” means, “Yours is the only news organization I am speaking to.” For Favre, “exclusive” means, “Yours is the only news organization I am speaking to at this instant.”) Four days later, King said he was “98 percent certain” Favre would never play again. King wrote, “I talked to Brett for 20 minutes and he’s content … to be married to his 465-acre spread in Mississippi and work the land.”
In early July, ESPN reported Favre might indeed play anew; Favre promptly told the Sun Herald of Biloxi, Miss., the ESPN story was “all rumor.” Sporting News predicted Favre would play for one of five teams: the Bucs, Dolphins, Eagles, Seahawks or Vikings. Soon after, Packers chairman emeritus Bob Harlan declared that “down deep,” Favre wanted to stay retired. Speculation began that Favre would land with the Jets, but the New York Daily News scotched such crazy thinking with the July 12 headline, “Source: Jets won’t pursue Brett Favre.” What did Favre think of the Jets rumor? On July 14, King wrote, “Favre has gone underground. My text messages for him and agent Bus Cook went unreturned.” Text messages not returned — maybe Favre was hiding in the sewers, or in an air shaft! Just two days after King said Favre had “gone underground,” the quarterback spoke to a national television audience at the ESPYS in Los Angeles. Is that what life underground was like for Che Guevara? A few days later, King declared that Favre would come back, with the Buccaneers. Apparently the thrill of working the land had worn off.
In mid-July, Pat Kirwan of NFL.com declared with pseudo-precision that Favre was “80 percent” likely to return, this estimate attributed to “people close to Favre.” So, people who live in Sumrall, Miss.? On July 24, Adam Schefter of NFL.com reported exclusively that Favre would be at Green Bay training camp the next day; 10 days passed until Favre appeared at Green Bay camp. On July 30, Pro Football Talk predicted Favre would play for Minnesota, saying, “Favre’s defection to purple is, to a certain extent, inevitable.” Don Banks of Sports Illustrated predicted Favre would not play for anyone in 2008, and Schefter said Favre had only two options: Green Bay or Mississippi.
August arrived, and Green Bay management offered Favre a long-term contract to remain retired and publicize the Packers’ brand. On Aug. 1, Favre told Ed Werder of ESPN he would accept the money and not perform again. On Aug. 2, King seconded that, saying, “Favre has all but decided to take the team’s offer of a rich, long-term marketing contract instead of playing.” Working the land looks a lot better if promotional fees are included! On Aug. 3, Favre told Werder he was on the way to Green Bay to rejoin the team. Suddenly, it seemed Favre would play for the Packers after all; on Aug. 4, Battista of The New York Times predicted, “It may not be much longer till [Favre] returns to the [Packers] starting quarterback job.” Forget that Tampa Bay business: King said on NBC, “Favre has definitely decided not to play for anyone except the Packers or Vikings.”
That lasted one day! Favre walked into the Packers’ practice facility and walked out a few hours later, carrying assorted items in a plastic garbage sack. (Can’t millionaires afford a gym bag?) On Aug. 5, Jay Glazer of Fox Sports declared it was “less and less likely” that Favre would ever play again for any team. The same day, King said it was his “strong feeling” Favre would play for the Vikings. On Aug. 6, the Tampa Tribune reported Favre was “on the verge of joining the Bucs. … The deal is likely to be finalized within 24 hours.”
Then No. 4 was traded to the Jets. Warren Sapp predicted on NFL Network that “There will be no problems with Favre in New York.” The season would end with a deafening chorus of boos from the Jersey/B home crowd and the Jets’ coach fired. Jeffri Chadiha of ESPN predicted the Packers “will be fine” without Favre; Green Bay dropped from 14-4 in 2007 to 5-11 in 2008. Dan Pompei of Sporting News predicted, “There is no reason [Favre] should not be playing at a very high level this season.” Favre led the NFL in interceptions. On Jan. 26, 2009, King said Favre “has had enough” of playing — but might come back if offered a trade to the Vikings. Aaaaaiiiiiiiyyyyyyeeeee!
Peter King addendum: King makes so many hyperspecific predictions it’s hard to know what to take seriously. For instance, as noted by reader Ben Binningen of Switzerland, King predicted that in the Super Bowl, Willie Parker would carry 25 times for 113 yards. Not for about 100 yards but for exactly 113 yards. (Parker ran for 53 yards.) On NBC this fall, King predicted, among other things, that “Roy Williams will not be traded” (two days later, he was traded) and that “the Patriots are definitely going to let Matt Cassel walk & Cassel will not be franchised” (he was franchised). Owing to King’s track record, it worries me that he has predicted, “There is no danger of the NFL being interrupted by a labor dispute” in 2009 or 2010.
the day King and Berman leave journalism is the day I’ll have a smile watching prime time football again.
