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March 5, 2010

The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It – by Scott Patterson



 
“Beware of geeks bearing formulas.”
–Warren Buffett
 
In March of 2006, the world’s richest men sipped champagne in an opulent New York hotel.  They were preparing to compete in a poker tournament with million-dollar stakes, but those numbers meant nothing to them.  They were accustomed to risking billions.  
 
At the card table that night was Peter Muller, an eccentric, whip-smart whiz kid who’d studied theoretical mathematics at Princeton and now managed a fabulously successful hedge fund called PDT…when he wasn’t playing his keyboard for morning commuters on the New York subway.  With him was Ken Griffin, who as an undergraduate trading convertible bonds out of his Harvard dorm room had outsmarted the Wall Street pros and made money in one of the worst bear markets of all time.  Now he was the tough-as-nails head of Citadel Investment Group, one of the most powerful money machines on earth. There too were Cliff Asness, the sharp-tongued, mercurial founder of the hedge fund AQR, a man as famous for his computer-smashing rages as for his brilliance, and Boaz Weinstein, chess life-master and king of the credit default swap, who while juggling $30 billion worth of positions for Deutsche Bank found time for frequent visits to Las Vegas with the famed MIT card-counting team.  
 
On that night in 2006, these four men and their cohorts were the new kings of Wall Street.  Muller, Griffin, Asness, and Weinstein were among the best and brightest of a  new breed, the quants.  Over the prior twenty years, this species of math whiz –technocrats who make billions not with gut calls or fundamental analysis but with formulas and high-speed computers– had usurped the testosterone-fueled, kill-or-be-killed risk-takers who’d long been the alpha males the world’s largest casino.  The quants believed that a dizzying, indecipherable-to-mere-mortals cocktail of differential calculus, quantum physics, and advanced geometry held the key to reaping riches from the financial markets.  And they helped create a digitized money-trading machine that could shift billions around the globe with the click of a mouse.  
 
Few realized that night, though, that in creating this unprecedented machine, men like Muller, Griffin, Asness and Weinstein had sowed the seeds for history’s greatest financial disaster.  
 
Drawing on unprecedented access to these four number-crunching titans, The Quants tells the inside story of what they thought and felt in the days and weeks when they helplessly watched much of their net worth vaporize – and wondered just how their mind-bending formulas and genius-level IQ’s had led them so wrong, so fast.  Had their years of success been dumb luck, fool’s gold, a good run that could come to an end on any given day?  What if The Truth they sought — the secret of the markets — wasn’t knowable? Worse, what if there wasn’t any Truth?
 
In The Quants, Scott Patterson tells the story not just of these men, but of Jim Simons, the reclusive founder of the most successful hedge fund in history; Aaron Brown, the quant who used his math skills to humiliate Wall Street’s old guard at their trademark game of Liar’s Poker, and years later found himself with a front-row seat to the rapid emergence of mortgage-backed securities; and gadflies and dissenters such as Paul Wilmott, Nassim Taleb, and Benoit Mandelbrot.  
 
With the immediacy of today’s NASDAQ close and the timeless power of a Greek tragedy, The Quants is at once a masterpiece of explanatory journalism, a gripping tale of ambition and hubris…and an ominous warning about Wall Street’s future.

sigh

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March 4, 2010

The plot thickens in the “Mysterious Death of Carol Wayne”



 

Mexican authorities wondered how Carol Wayne came to drown in waters four feet deep, fully clothed. There were no cuts or abrasions, so a fall from the nearby rocks was ruled out. The coroner stated that death occurred 3 – 4 days earlier and the body tested negative for drugs and alcohol.

Suspicions were raised: Carol Wayne had to be identified by workers at the Las Hadas resort where the couple had been staying earlier in the week. When locals went to look for Wayne’s traveling companion, they discovered that Edward Durston checked out three days earlier – leaving Wayne’s luggage at the airport with a message that she would pick up her bags in the morning.

Carol Wayne could not swim, and reportedly did not like to go too near the water. So how did she happen to be found dead in calm and shallow waters?

“Carol Wayne’s death is unsolved, certainly,” the U.S. Consular William LaCoque was quoted as saying in 1990. “But I don’t think it was a drowning. A drowning, yes, of course, but there is much more to it than that.” What more, we may never know.

As an aside, many readers may remember the (alleged) LSD related death of Art Linkletter’s daughter Diane. She jumped (or fell) from a sixth floor apartment building in 1969.

Art Linkletter basically ended his successful television career when he started crusading against drugs with a fervor that made it hard for middle America to find the afternoon talk show host funny anymore.

Not that it necessarily means anything, but Diane Linkletter’s companion the night she was killed was Edward Durston.

Edward Durston has been a companion of 2 Hollywood starlets’ deaths? I’m surprised he wasn’t hanging with Anna Nicole too!

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March 3, 2010

CNN’s Rick Sanchez at his apoplectic best [Video: The Uninformant | The Daily Show | Comedy Central]



 

Haven’t seen him this good since the taser!

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February 28, 2010

The Straight Dope from @Arseblog about Aaron Ramsey’s injury and the media’s role in it. And leadership.



 

Arsene Wenger addressed it already this season at one his press conferences.

I am always absolutely amazed that people get away with it. When we get kicked and lose the game, the question I get from the press is ‘oh, you did not fancy that’. But nobody is upset or shocked by it. When we are kicked they find that it is absolutely all right.

And the assembled hacks had a little titter and off they went to do exactly that. The furore over Gallas’s tackle after the Bolton game was incredible. I don’t remember any pundit saying “He’s not that kind of player”, only slamming him for what was, I agree, a bad challenge. The Shawcross apologists are out in force today yet these are the same people who made such a mountain out of the molehill that was Eduardo’s dive against Celtic that UEFA ‘investigated’ and tried to ban him. A dive. Yet when a young man has his leg broken in bits they keep their mouths shut or come out in defence of the honest English clogger (any coincidence all three challenges have been by Englishmen?). Honestly, they make me fucking sick. This willingness to overlook acts of horrific violence yet focus on trivia like diving.

Shawcross gets a three match ban, Alex Song is now banned for two matches for a booking that never was. How the fuck does that work in any sane kind of world? It’s rotten to the core, is what it is. 

Cesc Fabregas became the leader Arsenal fans have so dearly wanted for so long. I won’t hear a thing about how he’s not a captain because he fucking well is. First goal – assist for Bendtner’s fantastic header. Second goal – a penalty under the most intense pressure imaginable. He had the balls to get up there, take it and score it. Third goal – assist for Vermaelen. Nor did he stand for any of Stoke’s baiting. He had a little kick at one of their players who had kicked him earlier. He Sssshhh’d Tony Pulis. He dragged his Arsenal team over the line. He led by example last night and at the end of the game our players stood in a huddle, knowing they’d shown what they’re made of, and the captain rallied his troops. Each one of them was fantastic last night. The lessons of Birmingham have been learned.

I know people all have their opinions of this team, the players, the managers and everything else but if last night didn’t make you proud to be an Arsenal fan then there’s something wrong with you. My spine is tingling even thinking about it.

Excellent summary in my opinion. I’ve had my problems with the English media when it came to foreigners in football, but then again who hasn’t had problems with media on either side of the pond. It’s become a wasteland of writers who value making a name more than getting the facts straight, of becoming the news rather than reporting it. So while I hope more attention goes to that fact, I don’t expect it to – especially past today.

Regarding the team leadership, I think two years on we can see the difference. The team fell apart after the Eduardo situation then (much like Chelsea is doing now), but rallied here to win the game in The Britannia and even gathered in a team circle after the game (much to the chagrin of the Potter faithful who, it would seem, would have cheered the Lions against the Christians.

3 points off the top with about 11 to go. We can do it!

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February 27, 2010

Arsenal have another leg break on trip north [Aaron Ramsey suffers 'Eduardo-injury']



 

SKY TV how were screening the Premier League live decided not to show a replay of the incident because it was ‘upsetting’.

Aaron Ramsey

Damned untechnical brute English players and their imprecision in tackles on Arsenal players. Early word is leg break (obviously) and dislocated kneecap. Ouch. Godspeed Aaron.

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February 22, 2010

“The GOP’s “small government” tea party fraud” by Glenn Greenwald – Salon.com



 

There’s a major political fraud underway:  the GOP is once again donning their libertarian, limited-government masks in order to re-invent itself and, more important, to co-opt the energy and passion of the Ron-Paul-faction that spawned and sustains the ”tea party” movement.  The Party that spat contempt at Paul during the Bush years and was diametrically opposed to most of his platform now pretends to share his views.  Standard-issue Republicans and Ron Paul libertarians are as incompatible as two factions can be — recall that the most celebrated right-wing moment of the 2008 presidential campaign was when Rudy Giuliani all but accused Paul of being an America-hating Terrorist-lover for daring to suggest that America’s conduct might contribute to Islamic radicalism — yet the Republicans, aided by the media, are pretending that this is one unified, harmonious, “small government” political movement.

The Right is petrified that this fraud will be exposed and is thus bending over backwards to sustain the myth.  Paul was not only invited to be a featured speaker at the Conservative Political Action Conference but also won its presidential straw poll.  Sarah Palin endorsed Ron Paul’s son in the Kentucky Senate race.  National Review is lavishly praising Paul, while Ann Coulter “felt compelled [in her CPAC speech] to give a shout out to Paul-mania, saying she agreed with everything he stands for outside of foreign policy — a statement met with cheers.”  Glenn Beck — who literally cheered for the Wall Street bailout and Bush’s endlessly expanding surveillance state — now parades around as though he shares the libertarians’ contempt for them.  Red State’s Erick Erickson, defending the new so-called conservative “manifesto,” touts the need for Congress to be confined to the express powers of Article I, Section 8, all while lauding a GOP Congress that supported countless intrusive laws — from federalized restrictions on assisted suicide, marriage, gambling, abortion and drugs to intervention in Terri Schiavo’s end-of-life state court proceeding — nowhere to be found in that Constitutional clause.  With the GOP out of power, Fox News suddenly started featuring anti-government libertarians such as John Stossel and Reason Magazine commentators, whereas, when Bush was in power, there was no government power too expanded or limitless for Fox propagandists to praise.

This is what Republicans always do.  When in power, they massively expand the power of the state in every realm.  Deficit spending and the national debt skyrocket.  The National Security State is bloated beyond description through wars and occupations, while no limits are tolerated on the Surveillance State.  Then, when out of power, they suddenly pretend to re-discover their “small government principles.”  The very same Republicans who spent the 1990s vehemently opposing Bill Clinton’s Terrorism-justified attempts to expand government surveillance and executive authority then, once in power, presided over the largest expansion in history of those very same powers.  The last eight years of Republican rule was characterized by nothing other than endlessly expanded government power, even as they insisted — both before they were empowered and again now — that they are the standard-bearers of government restraint.

What makes this deceit particularly urgent for them now is that their only hope for re-branding and re-empowerment lies in a movement — the tea partiers — that has been (largely though not exclusively) dominated by libertarians, Paul followers, and other assorted idiosyncratic factions who are hostile to the GOP’s actual approach to governing.  This is a huge wedge waiting to be exposed — to explode — as the modern GOP establishment and the actual ”small-government” libertarians that fuel the tea party are fundamentally incompatible.  Right-wing mavens like Ann Coulter, Sarah Palin and National Review are suddenly feigning great respect for Ron Paul and like-minded activists because they’re eager that the sham will be maintained:  the blatant sham that the modern GOP and its movement conservatives are a coherent vehicle for those who believe in small government principles.  The only evidence of a passionate movement urging GOP resurgence is from people whose views are antithetical to that Party.  That’s the dirty secret which right-wing polemicists are desperately trying to keep suppressed. Credit to Mike Huckabee for acknowledging this core incompatibility by saying he would not attend CPAC because of its “increasing libertarianism.”

These fault lines began to emerge when Sarah Palin earlier this month delivered the keynote speech to the national tea party conference in Nashville, and stood there spitting out one platitude after the next which Paul-led libertarians despise:  from neoconservative war-loving dogma and veneration of Israel to glorification of “War on Terror” domestic powers and the need of the state to enforce Palin’s own religious and cultural values.  Neocons (who still overwhelmingly dominate the GOP) and Paul-led libertarians are arch enemies, and the social conservatives on whom the GOP depends are barely viewed with greater affection.  Sarah Palin and Ron Paul are about as far apart on most issues as one can get; the “tea party movement” can’t possibly be about supporting each of their worldviews.  Moreover, the GOP leadership is currently promising Wall Street even more loyal subservience than Democrats have given in exchange for support, thus bolstering the government/corporate axis which libertarians find so repugnant.  And Coulter’s manipulative claim that she “agrees with everything [Paul] stands for outside of foreign policy” is laughable; aside from the fact that “foreign policy” is a rather large issue in our political debates (Iraq, Israel, Afghanistan, Iran, Russia), they were on exactly the opposite sides of the most intense domestic controversies of the Bush era:  torture, military commissions, habeas corpus, Guantanamo, CIA secrecy, telecom immunity, and warrantless eavesdropping.  

Part of why this fraud has been sustainable thus far is that libertarians — like everyone who doesn’t view all politics through the mandated, distorting, suffocating Democrat v. GOP prism — are typically dismissed as loons and nuts, and are thus eager for any means of achieving mainstream acceptance.  Having the GOP embrace them is one way to achieve that (Karl Rove:  some ”see the tea party movement as a recruiting pool for volunteers for Ron Paul’s next presidential bid . . . . The Republican Party and the tea party movement have many common interests”).  Additionally, just as the Paul-faction of libertarians is in basic harmony with many progressives on issues of foreign policy and civil liberties, they do subscribe to the standard GOP rhetoric on domestic spending, social programs and the like.  

But that GOP limited government rhetoric is simply never matched by that Party’s conduct, especially when they wield power.  The very idea that a political party dominated by neocons, warmongers, surveillance fetishists, and privacy-hating social conservatives will be a party of “limited government” is absurd on its face.  There literally is no myth more transparent than the Republican Party’s claim to believe in restrained government power.  For that reason, it’s only a matter of time before the fundamental incompatibility of the “tea party movement” and the political party cynically exploiting it is exposed.

mmmmhmmmm

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February 19, 2010

I was wrong. THIS is the best Deadspin #nbchate comment EVER!

Filed under: MSNBC, Olympics, Randomness, TV — Tags: , , , , , — webadmin @ 3:43 pm


 

From: Maureen W.
Date: Thu, Feb 18, 2010 at 1:39 AM
Subject: I hate you bald fat fuck
To: dick.ebersol@nbcuni.com
Cc: ajd@deadspin.com

Dear dickface,

I lost my job several months ago. My mother just died. I had a fucking tumor removed from my fucking lady business recently. and do you know what’s worse than all that? YOUR TOTAL FUCKING DISREGARD FOR SPORT. My husband & I both love the Olympics, and you have absolutely mother fucking ruined them for us (both of us being smack dab in the center of your target demographic, by the way. Just a couple of white people with money to burn, looking to enjoy the world’s greatest sports competition and find out what we should purchase next with all of our disposable income). We live two goddamned hours from Vancouver, imagine our surprise when we discovered that people in fucking brooklyn would be watching events live, while we poor idiots on the ENTIRE WEST COAST could all just suck what I assume is your non-functional cock until you felt like showing them to us. Guess what Dick? ITS NOT 1963!! FUCK YOU and the shit “job” that you do there. NBC fucked me on Conan, and now you are fucking me on the Olympics. I’m all fucked out Dick – I’m done with you and your whole shitty crew. Enjoy the total irrelevance your stupidty and incompetence has guaranteed you and your “industry.”

If you have anything to say in your defense, please feel more than free to email a reply. Just ask your assistant how to turn on your computer. You do have a computer right? You totally should, its a really good place to get live coverage of the Olympics.

Fuck you,
Maureen Whitney

p.s. we remember the turd you laid called the XFL, Dick. Everyone remembers.

Ahhh the Olympics brings out the best in all of us!

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best Deadspin #nbchate comment EVER!

Filed under: MSNBC, Olympics, Randomness, TV — Tags: , , , , , — webadmin @ 12:59 am


 

myotherrideisyourmom:

Ok, it’s bad enough that NBC’s Olympic coverage makes me want to gouge out my fucking eyeballs. However, the bigger issue is here that no one warned me that I would also have to listen to Cris ass face fucking Collinsworth in addition to dealing with NBC’s bullshit. It’s like some bizarre form of torture. This ass pirate has already completely ruined Sunday night football and let’s not forget that every time I want to play Madden I have to mute the damn TV. Now I have to listen to him shoot the shit with Bob Costas and offer his two cents on the Olympic events. YOU WERE A FUCKING FOOTBALL PLAYER! What the hell do you know about luge, bobsledding or alpine skiing? It’s like the perfect shit storm. You can’t watch the Olympics live and then you get audibly raped by that douche bag!

Hilarious!

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February 18, 2010

[Dear Sarah: Say it is so, run for president - Leonard Pitts Jr. - MiamiHerald.com] awesome!

Filed under: Election, George Bush, Politics, Randomness, Republicans — Tags: , , , — webadmin @ 11:40 pm


 

Dear Sarah Palin:

I hear you’re pondering a run for the White House in 2012. Last week, you told Fox news it would be “absurd” to rule it out.

I’m writing to ask that you rule it in. I very badly want you to run for — and win — the Republican nomination for the presidency.

I know you’re waiting for the punch line. Maybe you figure I think you’d be a weak candidate who would pave the way for President Obama’s easy re-election.

That’s not it. No, I want you to run because I believe a Palin candidacy would force upon this country a desperately needed moment of truth. It would require us to finally decide what kind of America we want to be.

Mrs. Palin, you are an avatar of the shameless hypocrisy and cognitive disconnection that have driven our politics for the last decade, a process of stupidification creeping like kudzu over our national life.

As Exhibit A, consider your recent speech at a so-called “tea party” event, wherein you dismissed the president as a “charismatic guy with a teleprompter.” Bad enough you imply that teleprompter use is the mark of an insubstantial man, even though you and every other major politician uses them. But what made the comment truly jaw-dropping is that even as you spoke, you had penned on your left palm, clearly visible, a series of crib notes.

Mrs. Palin, if Obama is an idiot for reading a prepared speech off a teleprompter, what are you for reading notes you’ve inked on your hand like a school kid who failed to study for the big test?

In the Fox interview, you scored Obama for supposedly expecting Americans to “sit down and shut up” and accept his policies. But when asked when the president has ever said that, you couldn’t answer. Obama, you sputtered, has just been condescending with his “general persona.”

I found that a telling moment. See, ultimately what you represent is not conservatism. Heck, I suspect that somewhere, Barry Goldwater and Ronald Reagan are spinning like helicopter rotors at the very idea.

No, you represent the latest iteration of an anti-intellectualism that periodically rises in the American character. There is, historically and persistently, a belief in us that y’all just can’t trust nobody who acts too smart or talks too good — in other words, somebody whose “general persona” indicates they may have once cracked a book or had a thought. Americans tend to believe common sense the exclusive province of humble folks without sheepskins on the wall or big words in their vocabularies.

I don’t mock those people. They are my parents, my family elders, members of my childhood church. I honor their native good sense, what mom called “mother wit.” But if it is insulting to condescend to them, it is equally insulting to mythologize them.

More to the point, something is wrong when we celebrate mental mediocrity like yours under the misapprehension that competence or, God forbid, intelligence, makes a person one of those “elites” — that’s a curse word now — lacking authenticity, compassion and common sense.

So no, this is not a clash of ideologies, but a clash between intelligence and its opposite. And I am tired of being asked to pretend stupid is a virtue. That’s why I’d welcome the moment of truth your campaign would bring. It would force us to decide once and for all whether we are permanently committed to the path of ignorance, of birthers, truthers and tea party incoherence you represent, or whether we will at last turn back from the cliff toward which we race.

If the latter, wonderful, God bless America. If the former, well, some of us can finally quit hoping the nation will return to its senses and plan accordingly. Either way, we need to know, and your candidacy would tell us. If you love this country, Mrs. Palin, you can do it no greater service.

Run, Sarah, run.

I want Sarah to run … AND win for the good of the country to see that STUPID PEOPLE SHOULD NOT BE PUT IN CHARGE OF SHIT.

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Exposing the MURDER of Carol Wayne



 
E! Mysteries & Scandals did an episode on Carol Wayne – 60s game show and sitcom star.

All that was discovered by producers is that in 1985, Carol Wayne and her companion Ed Durston had to leave their posh resort Las Hadas hotel in Manzanillo (they wanted to extend stay but hotel was booked— or they ran out of money?) and when Carol was not happy with the nearby hotel option (2 star) she stormed off in a huff.

Ed went to airport with her luggage – hoping she would show up for their planned flight. She never did. She turned up days later – dead – floating in the shallow bay.

Supposedly Ed Durston came home to LA very shook up (according to his ex wife) and had no idea where Carol had gone. Ed Durston was never questioned in her death as a potential murderer. His ex-wife told E! producers (off camera) that she knew in her heart Ed did not harm Carol – and he had been genuinely worried for her safety (Ed Durston was the guy with Dianne Linkletter the night she jumped out the window).

Carol was supposedly terrified of water (even refusing baths) according to her “personal assistant” interviewed by E! in 1999 — So how did she get in the water?
Did she score drugs and pass out — get abducted and raped ?
It’s not hard to imagine — a buxom blonde by herself – getting grabbed/raped and murdered in Mexico and murderer going free.

Mexican officials performed an autopsy and said she was clear of drugs or alcohol (but was this accurate or just shoddy medical techniques?) and they also ruled out foul play. It was called an accidental drowning.

Regardless of how she drowned— her body was cremated at the request of Barry Feinstein – her ex-husband and the father of her only son, Alex.

Her look-a-like sister Nina Wayne (a 60s actress — and mother of a daughter named Jessica with John Drew Barrymore) apparently had no say in the matter of her sister’s body.

Then again…her body was horribly bloated and cremation was quick and easy — but the cremation also destroyed her remains for any future examinations in the United States.

E! Producers supposedly found out (and this was not in the episode but was told to me) that her ex-husband Barry Feinstein had an accidental death insurance policy out on Carol — and he was able to collect the double-indemnity money due to the Mexican Gov’t findings that it was an accidental drowning and not drug/booze/murder related.

Carol had declared bankruptcy a year earlier and posed for Playboy for $$ and her drug use was escalating (she looked high as a kite as celeb judge on the Cable TV pageant “Best Chest in the West”).

Carol chose the now familiar “Britney / Lohan” cure of vacationing instead of serious rehab.

It was a tragic end to a lady that brought a lot of laughs via her TV appearances.

With the cocaine addicted / over-the-hill actress dead, and the insurance money collected (on her son’s behalf?) nobody asked another question about it — until E! went around asking colleagues and friends and relatives in 1999.

Barry Feinstein would not be interviewed, and Nina Wayne refused to be filmed for the show – wanting to leave it all in the past.

I smell a cover-up.

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